Rare earth truce: US extends by law to January, China issues no notice on eve of deadline

[Update, November 9, 2026, 4:38] Because the absence of an extension notice from China's Ministry of Commerce was confirmed as of November 8, we changed "even on the day before (November 9)" to "as of November 8." Because the absence of an extension notice from China's Ministry of Commerce was confirmed as of November 8, we changed "even on the day before" to "as of November 8." Because the absence of an extension notice from China's Ministry of Commerce was confirmed as of November 8, we changed "November 9" to "November 8." Because the absence of an extension notice from China's Ministry of Commerce was confirmed as of November 8, we changed "even on the day before" to "as of November 8." Because the absence of an extension notice from China's Ministry of Commerce was confirmed as of November 8, we changed "even on the day before" in the headline to "as of November 8." Because China's Ministry of Commerce website was checked as of November 8, we changed "November 9" to "November 8."

The US-China trade truce is running on deadlines that, on paper, no longer match. On November 9, the US published a rule in the Federal Register (the government's official journal for rules) extending the suspension of part of its controls until January 10, 2027. China, by contrast, had not issued a notice of extension as of November 8, even though its suspension of export controls on rare earths (scarce metals used in motor magnets and other products) expires on November 10. The US has finished putting its extension into law, while China has yet to produce any document deciding an extension.

What it means for Japanese companies: Procurement staff at manufacturers that buy rare earth magnets or materials from China (motors, electronic components, auto parts and the like) should confirm with suppliers and trading houses this week whether shipments after November 10 will stay on current terms. Export control staff at companies that deal with subsidiaries of Chinese firms subject to US controls should write into internal procedures that the US suspension runs until January 10, 2027. Companies with no business with China are not directly affected.

US: Extended to January 10 in the Federal Register

The rule the US Commerce Department published in the Federal Register (dated November 9) extends the suspension of a particular rule. That rule widens export controls beyond the companies on the restricted list to the subsidiaries they own as well. Because it would sharply increase the number of companies covered, China had strongly objected.

The US had suspended the rule as part of the truce. Under the new rule, the suspension now runs until January 10, 2027. The extension is short, at about two months. It leaves Washington's hands untied until after the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) leaders' meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19.

On the US side, the matter is settled in law at least until January 10. Until that date, controls will not be widened to subsidiaries.

China: No notice as of November 8

The centerpiece of China's side of the truce was suspending its export controls on rare earths. That suspension expires on November 10. As of November 8, China's Ministry of Commerce website carried a readout of a meeting between senior officials and remarks by a spokesperson. But no notice extending the suspension had been issued.

If the deadline passes without a notice, the suspended controls would formally return. China could still issue a notice on the deadline day or afterward. Even so, the gap between a US that has already published its extension and a China that has not is no small matter for those doing business. Because export licenses are issued by Chinese authorities, exporters without a notice will not know what basis to follow in their filings.

US reportedly raises rare earth shortfall

Ahead of the deadline, the US is reportedly putting pressure on China. According to a report (November 6), Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer urged Vice Premier He Lifeng, China's lead trade negotiator, to immediately honor the commitments made at the leaders' summit in Busan. The US side reportedly took issue with rare earth deliveries falling short of what was promised.

In other words, the substance of the truce is still being contested. The US is keeping bargaining leverage in hand with a short extension, while China has yet to issue its extension notice. Heading into the APEC leaders' meeting, each side appears to be waiting for the other to move first.

Dates ahead, and what could not be confirmed

There are three dates to watch. November 10 is when China's suspension of its rare earth controls expires. On November 18-19, the APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen is expected to discuss how to continue the truce. January 10, 2027 is when the US suspension expires.

Some points could not be confirmed. The full texts of the Federal Register rule and the Ministry of Commerce pages could not be re-read directly for this article. The account that the US raised a rare earth shortfall, and its details, are based on media reports and have not been confirmed through US government statements. Whether China will issue a notice on November 10 itself remains unknown.